Jody Demling Derby Picks 2026
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby is here, and the betting world is buzzing. If you follow the “Run for the Roses,” you know that Jody Demling is the name to watch. With a legendary track record—including hitting the Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years—his 2026 picks carry significant weight.
Here is an informative breakdown of Demling’s strategy and top selections for the 2026 Kentucky Derby
The Big Fade: Why Demling is Avoiding the Favorite
The most shocking part of Demling’s 2026 card is his complete lack of faith in the morning-line favorite, Renegade (4-1). While Renegade entered Churchill Downs with massive momentum following wins in the Arkansas Derby and Sam F. Davis Stakes, Demling points to two major red flags:
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The “Curse” of Post 1: Renegade drew the dreaded inside rail. No horse has won the Derby from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.
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The Favorite Slump: A morning-line favorite hasn’t captured the roses since 2018.
Demling predicts Renegade will struggle to even crack the top 10, a bold call that could shift the entire betting landscape.
Top Contenders: Who Demling Likes
With the favorite out of his top tier, Demling has shifted his focus to horses showing better value and peak form.
1. Commandment (6-1)
A half-brother to Renegade, Commandment is Demling’s top choice for the “Win” or “Place” spot. He arrives on a four-race winning streak, including a dominant performance in the Florida Derby. Demling likes his tactical speed and his ability to handle the high-pressure environment of a 20-horse field.
2. Further Ado (6-1)
Trained by Brad Cox, Further Ado is another “must-back” on Demling’s list. Having already won at Churchill Downs as a two-year-old and coming off a victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, this colt has the “home-field advantage” and the pedigree to handle the $1 \frac{1}{4}$ mile distance.
3. The Puma (10-1)
Demling is particularly high on The Puma. Despite a narrow loss in the Florida Derby, Demling believes a key equipment change—adding blinkers for the first time—will unlock a “huge effort” that could land him in the winner’s circle.
The “Freak” Longshot to Watch
Demling is famous for identifying double-digit longshots that “hit the board hard.” For 2026, he has circled Emerging Market (15-1) and Potente (20-1) as critical additions to any exotic bets (Exactas and Trifectas).
He has also teased a specific “massive longshot” in his private tier who he claims “could be a freak” on Derby Day. Historically, when Demling labels a horse a “freak,” they tend to outperform their odds significantly.
Jody Demling’s 2026 Betting Cheat Sheet
| Position | Horse | Odds | Why? |
| WIN/PLACE | Commandment | 6-1 | Florida Derby winner; massive 4-race win streak. |
| SHOW | Emerging Market | 15-1 | Strong closer; Demling expects him to pick up the pieces late. |
| VALUE PLAY | The Puma | 10-1 | Sire is Essential Quality; blinkers added for the Derby. |
| THE FADE | Renegade | 4-1 | Trapped in Post 1; history is against the favorite. |
Final Takeaway
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a year of chaos. By fading the heavy favorite and leaning into battle-tested contenders like Commandment and The Puma, Demling is positioning his followers for another potential windfall.
If you’re building a ticket, the consensus from the expert is clear: look past the No. 1 stall and don’t be afraid of the double-digit odds.